If current trends continue, nearly one-quarter of the world’s population will have obesity by 2045. And one in eight people will have type 2 diabetes, an International Diabetes Federation (IDF) study suggests (International Diabetes Federation, 2017)¹.
In addition, global diabetes-related healthcare costs are projected to reach $1.1 trillion annually, with obesity acting as a significant contributor, placing an even greater burden on already strained health systems, IDF reported.
According to the IDF and the World Obesity Federation, obesity significantly drives type 2 diabetes prevalence. Current projections indicate that by 2045, over 22% of the global population could be living with obesity, contributing to an estimated one in eight people having type 2 diabetes. The IDF highlights that addressing obesity is essential for controlling diabetes rates, as obesity accounts for nearly 43% of type 2 diabetes cases worldwide. This situation demands a multi-sectoral approach targeting prevention, policy changes, and better access to healthcare to mitigate these trends
In this current study we present, researchers analyzed World Health Organization data for all countries. The investigators divided each population into different groups based on age and body mass index (BMI) in order to calculate the diabetes risk for each year. BMI is a calculation used to estimate a person’s body fat based on their height and weight, essentially providing a measure of whether they are at a healthy weight for their stature.
A BMI of 25 to 29.9 is considered overweight and those with a BMI of 30 or more are considered obese; morbidly obese people have a BMI of 44.9 or more.
The researchers reported that global diabetes rates would stabilize only if obesity falls steadily from the current level of 14 percent to slightly more than 10 percent by 2045.
Broken down by country, by 2045 the United States can expect to see obesity rates climb from the current 39 percent to 55 percent, the findings showed. And U.S. diabetes rates will jump from 14 percent to 18 percent if sizable changes aren’t made.
“To keep U.S. diabetes rates stable over the next three decades, obesity would have to drop to 28 percent”, the researchers said.
Adult obesity exceeds 30 percent of the population in 20 U.S. states and surpassed 35 percent in three states — Arkansas (35.9 percent), West Virginia (35.7 percent) and Mississippi (35.5 percent). Also, 22 states have rates above 30 percent, 45 states are above 25 percent, and every other state is above 20 percent.
Obesity has serious health risks. Those who gain a moderate amount of weight (5 to 22 pounds) before the age of 55 have an increased risk of premature death and chronic diseases, according to a study released by researchers at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health (Zheng et al., 2017)².
“Our study is the first of its kind to systematically examine the association of weight gain from early to middle adulthood with major health risks later in life,” senior author Frank Hu, professor of nutrition and epidemiology and chair of Harvard’s Department of Nutrition, said.
Having obesity or overweight is associated with a higher risk of dying prematurely than being a healthier weight — and the risk increases with additional pounds, according to a study, conducted by the Global BMI Mortality Collaboration and published in The Lancet (Global BMI Mortality Collaboration, 2016)³.
Despite the challenge countries are facing with obesity and diabetes, the tide can be turned.
“We have seen an alarming rise in diabetes over the past three decades, which reflects the increase in obesity, compounded by the impacts of the marketing of unhealthy food, a lack of physical activity and economic hardship. To bring the global diabetes epidemic under control, countries must urgently take action. This starts with enacting policies that support healthy diets and physical activity, and, most importantly, health systems that provide prevention, early detection, and treatment,” Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, Director-General of the World Health Organization (WHO) said.
Obesity prevention
So, what can you do? Fortunately, there are a number of things you can do to avoid becoming a part of the nearly one-quarter of people set to become obese by 2045.
The first step is to know the factors that can contribute to your weight:
The next step is to see a healthcare provider once a year to monitor changes in your BMI. It should be noted that Black people have been shown to have lower body fat percentages and higher muscle masses, which may cause the BMI chart to misclassify you. Discuss this with your healthcare provider. He or she can recommend lifestyle changes if your BMI regularly increases.
The last step is implementing the lifestyle changes, which include:
If you have tried everything on this list and are still struggling with weight issues, you may need to consult with your doctor for additional help such as weight loss medications.
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