Health insurance premiums are set to jump sharply next year for people who buy coverage through Healthcare.gov or state-based marketplaces, according to a new analysis released by KFF, a nonpartisan health policy group.
The average consumer who buys Affordable Care Act plans will see premiums rise about 75 percent in 2026.
Insurance companies submit their proposed rates to state regulators each summer. Researchers at KFF review those filings to track what’s coming for consumers.
“These filings are usually hundreds of pages filled with math and equations,” said Cynthia Cox, who directs KFF’s Program on the ACA, according to NPR. “But sometimes they also add this narrative to explain why they’re raising their premiums.”
Cox added that this year, insurers are pointing less to hospital or drug costs and more to federal policy under the current Trump administration.
President Donald Trump and Senate Republicans have also been pushing their “One Big Beautiful Bill,” which would overhaul ACA marketplaces and scale back federal support.
RELATED: The “Big Beautiful Bill” Is Anything But A Wake-Up Call for Health Justice
Black Americans could be disproportionately affected by the changes. Between 2010 and 2022, the uninsured rate for nonelderly Black Americans dropped from 20.9 to 10.8 percent, thanks to expanded ACA coverage and Medicaid access.
An Urban Institute analysis found that 1.1 million Black people would lose subsidized Marketplace coverage if enhanced tax credits expire — nearly three-quarters of them living in states that did not expand Medicaid.
Black and Latino individuals have especially benefited from enhanced credits because they are more likely to earn lower incomes and struggle to access employer-based insurance.
Meanwhile, the impact could be greatest in Republican-led states where enrollment has surged in recent years.
The Congressional Budget Office projects that 8.2 million people who currently get ACA insurance will lose coverage over the next decade, due to both the expiration of tax credits and additional regulatory changes under the Trump administration’s health agenda.
RELATED: How the Affordable Care Act Impacts Black Americans: What You Need to Know
The enhanced subsidies began during the COVID-19 pandemic under the Biden administration, dramatically lowering premiums. Enrollment more than doubled as a result, reaching a record 24 million in January.
“That high enrollment helped drive the uninsured rate to its lowest level ever,” Cox said.
But with those subsidies expiring next year, premiums are expected to spike. For example, someone paying $60 a month this year could see their bill rise to $105.
People in good health may drop coverage altogether. The Congressional Budget Office estimates that 4.2 million more people could go uninsured over the next decade.
If healthier people exit the market, insurers are left with sicker enrollees who cost more to cover. “That’s why insurance companies are charging higher premiums, with the expectation that the market is going to get sicker next year,” Cox said.
Extending the subsidies would require Congress to act, but Republican leaders have long opposed the measure. The GOP argues the policy masks high costs and adds to federal spending.
The Republican Study Committee’s 2025 fiscal plan said the subsidies “perpetuate a never-ending cycle of rising premiums and federal bailouts — with taxpayers forced to foot the bill.”
Sen. Bill Cassidy, R-La., last year urged Congress to reject an extension, saying the aid “hides the unsustainable skyrocketing cost of Obamacare.”
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